The financial advisory mandate for the record sized $26 billion Aramco/Dow-sponsored petrochemical project -
Ras Tanura - has unofficially come down to a three horse race. A winner is expected to be announced by June from HSBC-SABB,
RBS-Riyad Bank and
SG-GIB.
Originally seven regional banks and six international banks were chosen as possible adviser with the sponsors asking for a pairing of regional and international banks. Saudi Hollandi was orphaned and fell from the running when it failed to secure an international partner.
Although in the shortlisted six, BNPP-Samba, Calyon-Saudi Fransi and Citi-Apicorp are also thought to have fallen from the running. Some participants questioned how Citi was able to get shortlisted given that the tender documentation expressly stipulated that advisers on other current
Aramco petchem deals would be conflicted Citi is advising on the Yanbu refinery JV between Aramco and ConocoPhillips.
The estimated cost of the complex is $26 billion, but his is likely to be revised upwards possibly toward $30 billion on the back of EPC inflation. The project is likely be split into discreet parts the utilities component alone could be worth up to $3 billion and tap every available pool of liquidity. Financial close is likely in 2010.